Hidy all,
I'm going to be conducting a Pre-PLAAY of the 2023 MLB season using the Instant Results Chart from History Maker Baseball and the projected wins and losses according to the Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview.
I'll be doing a double-elimination tournament in each division to get each division down to the last two contenders, then play out the last two games of the regular season (alternate schedule) for those teams (also via the Instant Results Chart--all results from this Pre-PLAAY will be from that chart).
Once division champs are determined, the wild-card spots will be determined via play-in games if the teams are within six projected wins of each other.
Then I'll play out the playoffs and see who comes out on top.
I haven't done this type of project in years, but I used to do it every year to make my own predictions for the upcoming season.
By the way, I'll be posting "monthly" results--breaking up each division mini-tournament into month-by-month segments of the regular season.
Edited by HoustonRules on 05/08/2023
(No results for late April nor May as the MLB divisions have five teams each--third seed in each division and the losers of Game 1 got byes for Game 2 and Game 3, respectively.)
(Just so y'all know, for the following results from July, the losing teams will NOT be winning their division. They could still be very much in contention for a wild-card berth, however.)
Just so y'all know, for the following results from the first half of August, the losing teams will NOT be winning their division. They could still be very much in contention for a wild-card berth, however.)
Early August results:
Giants 5, Diamondbacks 4
White Sox 5, Royals 4
Pirates 3, Cubs 2
Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 2
Mets 6, Nationals 3
Angels 5, Rangers 4
And for these results from the second half of August, the winning teams will be one of the last two battling for their respective division title in the last couple of days of the regular season.
For these results from early September, the winners will be the other team to be battling for their respective division title in the last couple of days of the regular season.
OK, so now we're down to the last two teams in each division that could possibly win the division title. Here's how this will work:
Depending on the projected win difference from the SI Baseball Preview, the leading team (between those two teams according to SI) will have either a one-or two-game lead in their division with two games to go in the regular season. (No contenders were within one projected win of each other, so no one is dead-even with two games to go.) Both teams will host a "spoiler" team in their division over the last two games.
Padres up two on the Giants.
Guardians up two on the White Sox.
Brewers up two on the Pirates.
Orioles up one on the Rays.
Mets up one on the Phillies.
Astros up two on the Mariners.
Also please note that whoever doesn't win the division won't necessarily finish second. They could conceivably finish way lower. This part here is just to determine the division champion in a "pennant race" kind of finish, but it's abstracted.
Wow, what a finish to the regular season! And it ain't over yet--there are still a few play-in games for some of the wild-card spots yet to be determined.
Here's how the division winners came out:
In the NL West, the Padres won their game against the Diamondbacks, 7-3. (Padres clinch NL West)
In the AL Central, the Guardians won their game against the Tigers, 4-2. (Guardians clinch AL Central)
...and here's where it gets interesting. In the NL Central, the Cubs beat the Brewers 3-2, while the Pirates beat the Cardinals 4-3, so the Pirates cut it to a one-game lead for the Brewers.
In the AL East, the Rays beat the Yankees 3-2, but the Orioles beat the Blue Jays 4-3, so the Orioles retained their one-game lead.
In the NL East, the Braves beat the Phillies 3-2, and the Mets beat the Marlins 5-4. (Mets clinch NL East)
In the AL West, the Astros won their game against the Rangers, 8-3. (Astros clinch AL West)
Next day's action...
Brewers again failed to clinch, losing to the Cubs 3-2. Pirates beat the Cardinals 3-2, so the Pirates will host a one-game tiebreaker against the Brewers.
Orioles lost to the Blue Jays 3-0, and the Rays beat the Yankees 3-1, so the Rays will host a one-game tiebreaker against the Orioles.
In those tiebreakers...
Pirates cap off the comeback and win the NL Central by beating the Brewers 4-2.
Rays also win their division with a 4-3 win over the Orioles.
In the NL, the Braves and the Dodgers get the first two wild-card spots, while the Cardinals will visit the Phillies in a play-in for the third spot.
In the AL, the Yankees get the first wild-card spot. Orioles visit the Blue Jays for another spot, and the Twins visit the Mariners for the other berth.
Playoff Bracket: In the Wild-Card Series, the 4 seed will host the 5 seed in a best-of-three, and the 3 seed will host the 6 seed. Winners will face the 1 seed and 2 seed, respectively, in the best-of-five Division Series.
