I have a couple of questions / comments /problems concerning the POTG Basketball 1976-1977 Season, if anyone out there can answer or help:
1. Rebounds and Assist totals appear off. Per the rules, “Again, for the resolution phase, a die roll of “0” or “10”, depending on your dice, results in a ZERO. Any time a player’s rating calls for a negative number of rebounds or assists, just treat this as zero.” Assuming this is correct, a 10 sided dice roll’s average (median) would be 4.5 as the possibilities are 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. Should the “0 or 10” roll count as a 10, the median possibility is 5.5 as the results shift to 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10.
In the 1976-1977 set, the rebound and assist ratings appear to be calculated with a median of 5.5 instead of 4.5. Here are some examples:
Bill Walton (14.4 rebounds per game) is rated a “9”. Using the rules, he would average 13-14 rebounds per game (e.g. 9 + 4.5 [one d10 median result = 4.5]). Using a “10” instead of a “0”, he would average 14-15 rebounds per game ( 9 + median 5.5). So it appears his rating is based on a 5.5 median result (“10” value).
Clifford Ray (exactly 8.0 rebounds per game) is rated a “2”. Using the rules, he would average 6-7 rebounds per game (2 + 4.5 = 6.5). Using the “10” versus a “0”, he would average (2 + 5.5) 7.5, which rounded up would equal 8. Again a 5.5 median result (“10” value) appears to be used.
Phil Smith is an example that I will use for assists. He played every game in the season (82) and averaged exactly 4.0 assists per game. His rating for assists is “-2”. Using the rules with a median roll of 4.5, he will get 2-3 assists per game (-2 + 4.5 = 2.5). Using the “10” versus a “0”, he will average 3-4 assists per game (-2 + 5.5 = 3.5). Again a 5.5 median result (“10” value) appears to be used.
I could give several more examples, but I really think the calculations in this set for rebounds and assists are used at a 5.5 median value in this set instead of a 4.5 value (per the rules). Played by the rules, all players will come up 1 rebound and 1 assist short per game on average. Guess you could resolve this by just adding 1 rebound and 1 assist per player per game, but that would take a ZERO value out-of-play. Sometimes players DON'T get a rebound or assist. So, really to fix this, the adjusted values would have to be increased by one. That would require a lot of pen and ink on the small team cards. This could be better fixed by Downey Games correcting on the cards, if possible, if I am right.
NOTE: Curiously, Phil Smith average exactly 4.0 rebounds per game which matches his assist total of 4.0 per game. However, his rebound rating is “-1” versus the “-2” assist rating. Regardless of what should be correct or is intended, it appears to me that they should be the same adjustment to come up with a 4.0 value.
2. Point totals using the Home Court Advantage seem to be inaccurate. Per the rules, “On each team rating sheet, there is a column that reads “Home ADV” followed by a set of numbers which are divided by a
slash. The first number always represents the adjustment made to the home team, and the 2nd number always represents the adjustment made to the visiting team. The adjustments are made to the SCOR column for their respective teams. This works exactly the same way as the adjustments we made for the Target SCOR earlier in the rules.”
Now, perhaps I am misinterpreting the application of the rules here and if so, I apologize in advance… but here is my understanding: Let’s use the 1976-77 Los Angeles Lakers versus the Portland Trailblazers as an example. The Lakers have a 6 / -6 home court ADV according to their team card. The beginning Target SCORs are 22 for LA and 23 for Portland. Applying the Home Court adjustments, LA gets +6, for a real ASCR (adjusted SCOR) total team value of 28 now (22+6), while Portland is assigned -6 for a real total value of 17 (23-6). Now, in this example, the Lakers also get a -2 Def and Portland a 0 Def, which will decrease Portland’s score by two more points and not effect the Lakers (Portland 0 DEF).
IF I am applying the rules correctly, then the Lakers will get 28 d10 player rolls total versus 17 for Portland. Using the median d10 roll of a 4.5 value, where a “10” is a “0” (which it is EXCEPT for the very top player on each team), we have the Lakers with a typical score of 28 * 4.5 = 126 pts, while the Trailblazers will have a typical score of 17 * 4.5 = 77 pts (76.5 rounded up) – 2 pts for the Lakers DEF for a grand total of 75 pts. Assuming each TOP player would get one “10” value, which is slightly overestimating, then the final score would be on average, LA 136 to Portland 85.
These are two of the best teams in the league. I can’t figure out how in any scenario that LA should have a 51 point home court advantage. I know they were like 37-4 at home but the point averages in LA was 109 for them and 99 for the visitors. That is a 10 point advantage. So, this really doesn’t seem right to me. Could it be that the HCA should somehow be “DEF” point based versus SCOR based? … In any case, this is really confusing to me. I really noticed this during the first week of my replay when I was getting several scores in the 70-80 point range for visiting teams in several locations. That isn't right for this NBA era.
Has anyone noticed this in this set or other sets? ....I just purchased the game and only have the 1976-1977 season and rules to reference.
Does anyone have any comments or ideas about these two issues / questions?
Not that anyone replied, but Jeff answered my problems / concerns.
1. Rebounds & Assists: use a 1-10 value for the dice rolls. Use a "10" not a "ZERO" value. This corrects the problem. I passed along my concern that I think the rules should be changed to reflect that.
2. Point totals inaccurate using the Home Court Advantage factor. There is a readme file within the game download that says to use points versus SCOR factors here. IMO the main rules file should also be changed here as playing by the "original" method will not work.
Did Jeff give any indication that we should be using a value of 10 instead of 0 for rebounds and assists across ALL seasons, or are you saying that this is only an issue for the 1976-77 season? I have always wondered about this as I have always used the value as 0 and my rebounds and assists are always low. Thanks for your help!