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BillSOffline
Post subject: College ATG Normalization  PostPosted: Nov 24, 2017 - 03:22 PM



Joined: Jun 29, 2012
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I just picked up the 1970s College ATG set during the sale. I already owned the 1970s Set 2 College ATG. Comparing the teams in the two sets, I can't help but notice that the teams in Set 2 seem to have far stronger defensive ratings than the teams in Set 1, which presumably contains the historically stronger teams. I don't notice any particular difference in the offensive/individual player ratings, which is what I would expect given how these ratings are presumably assigned.

This leads me to think that the method of normalization for the two sets was not the same. If that is the case, then match-ups between teams in the two sets will not be realistic. It would be disappointing if the teams in these two sets were not rated with the same criteria or with the same method of normalization.

Anyone else compare the teams in these two sets? Am I missing something here or does something seem a little off between them?
 
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Post subject: Re: College ATG Normalization  PostPosted: Nov 25, 2017 - 01:46 AM
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BillS wrote:
I just picked up the 1970s College ATG set during the sale. I already owned the 1970s Set 2 College ATG. Comparing the teams in the two sets, I can't help but notice that the teams in Set 2 seem to have far stronger defensive ratings than the teams in Set 1, which presumably contains the historically stronger teams. I don't notice any particular difference in the offensive/individual player ratings, which is what I would expect given how these ratings are presumably assigned.

This leads me to think that the method of normalization for the two sets was not the same. If that is the case, then match-ups between teams in the two sets will not be realistic. It would be disappointing if the teams in these two sets were not rated with the same criteria or with the same method of normalization.

Anyone else compare the teams in these two sets? Am I missing something here or does something seem a little off between them?


The method of rating teams, and normalization has not changed at all from the inception of the game. With the latter sets, we did add SOS, which was added after the I believe 2009, and carried over to the Greats sets. But, nothing in the rating system has changed.
 
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BillSOffline
Post subject: RE: Re: College ATG Normalization  PostPosted: Nov 27, 2017 - 10:44 AM



Joined: Jun 29, 2012
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OK, I'm glad to hear that nothing changed in the way teams were rated. It just seems that many of the teams from Set 1 have positive (less than average) defensive ratings while there are very few of those ratings for the Set 2 teams. I plan to match up the teams from each set against each other.

Last night, I had National Champion 1973 Notre Dame (undefeated) take on 1973 Houston (which finished 9th in the AP poll that year). Houston came through with the upset victory, 16-7. Notre Dame had its chances, but could not get the plays when it needed them. And ND also missed two "chip shot" field goals.

Next up, 1973 Oklahoma vs. 1973 Texas Tech. Promises to be a slugfest!!
 
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BillSOffline
Post subject: RE: Re: College ATG Normalization  PostPosted: May 24, 2018 - 03:13 PM



Joined: Jun 29, 2012
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OK, at the risk of beating a dead horse, I find it difficult to understand how the 1970s ATG sets 1 and 2 could have been normalized using the same method. Of course, I do not know all of the details or nuances of what goes into the defensive ratings, but regardless, some of the differences between teams in these two sets are stark.

I did some research into team defense statistics for every team in these sets. For each team, I listed Rushing Yards Per Attempt, Pass Completion Rate, and Yardage Per Completion (again, these are all defensive stats). It is clear to me that either the teams in Set 1 are under-rated or those in Set 2 are over-rated. This is even more striking considering that the teams in Set 1 were, generally speaking, the better historical teams.

Some examples: Set 1 1971 Alabama - Rush Defense Rating 1 (actual rushing yards per attempt - 3.0)
Set 2 1972 LSU - Rush Defense Rating -3 (actual rushing yards per attempt - 3.5)

Both played in the same conference against competition of an equal level. The game gives LSU a 4-column advantage. If anything, Alabama should have at least a 1 column (and maybe more) advantage.

Set 1 1973 Penn State - Rush Defense Rating 2 (actual rushing yards per attempt - 2.0)
Set 2 1973 Miami (OH) - Rush Defense Rating -4 (actual rushing yards per attempt - 1.8)

Why should Miami (OH), which played a much poorer quality schedule, receive a 6-column advantage when their stats are only very slightly better? I assumed strength of schedule was already factored in to normalize the ATG teams, but examples like this make me wonder.

I could give other examples for pass and yardage ratings, but I hope I got my point across without having to. Please don't get me wrong - I love Gridiron Wars and the college ATG sets. I spend more time playing this game with these sets than with any other non-baseball game. That is why this bothers me. I like pitting these great teams against each other, but the rating discrepancies I observe between teams in these sets seem obviously incorrect.

Does anyone else with these sets have any thoughts on this?
 
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BillSOffline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Sep 11, 2018 - 01:48 PM



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I think I have solved my issue with the disparate ratings between the 1970s all-time great sets and normalization. I had assumed that all of the teams in both sets were normalized against all of the teams in ATG sets for that particular decade. The differences in the defensive ratings of the teams in the sets led me to believe that perhaps the teams were only normalized against other teams in the particular set.

I have recently purchased all of the 1980s ATG sets. To my surprise, I noticed that 1980 Florida State is represented in both Set 1 and Set 2. Looking at the two team sheets, the ratings on the two 1980 Florida State are team sheets are vastly different. This confirms, in my mind, that the teams in these ATG sets are normalized only against other teams included in that particular set and not against other teams from other sets of the same decade or other decades.

While I am pleased to have figured out the reason for the disparities between the 1970s ATG sets, I am disappointed that games between teams from different sets will be a little tainted by the fact that they do not use the same standard for normalization (even if the method of normalization is the same). I will still play games between teams from different sets, because I find it very enjoyable and, apart from 1970s Set 2, most of the ratings seem to be closer in line with each other. 1970s Set 2 remains the "outlier" set, in my opinion.
 
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